Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Wales had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Wales win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.11) 
