SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 53.45%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 23.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Heracles |
23.98% ( 3.11) | 22.57% ( 0.77) | 53.45% ( -3.87) |
| Both teams to score 58.68% ( 1.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.88% ( 0.21) | 41.12% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.48% ( 0.21) | 63.52% ( -0.21) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.36% ( 2.88) | 30.64% ( -2.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.12% ( 3.28) | 66.88% ( -3.27) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.6% ( -1.19) | 15.4% ( 1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.79% ( -2.27) | 44.21% ( 2.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.62) 1-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.38)2-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.46)3-1 @ 2.44% ( 0.41)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.3)3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.27)Other @ 2.9% Total : 23.98% | 1-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.36)0-0 @ 4.72% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.57% | 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.47)0-2 @ 8.26% ( -0.81)1-3 @ 6.09% ( -0.36)0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.75)2-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 2.85% ( -0.3)0-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.47)2-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.16)0-5 @ 0.9% ( -0.22)Other @ 2.85% Total : 53.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 32 | 49 | 69 |
| 2 | Heracles | 30 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 86 | 35 | 51 | 66 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 52 |
| 4 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 52 |
| 5 | Willem II | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 50 |
| 6 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 47 |
| 7 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 53 | 54 | -1 | 44 |
| 8 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 43 |
| 9 | TelstarTelstar | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 43 |
| 10 | Roda JC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Jong AZJong AZ | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 41 |
| 12 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 39 |
| 13 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 38 |
| 15 | Helmond SportHelmond | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 34 |
| 16 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 51 | 58 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 30 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 27 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 20 |
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