Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 55.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 22.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.62%) and 0-2 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win it was 2-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
