Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Wuhan had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Wuhan win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
