Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 37.94% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
