SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 39.61%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 36.35% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.39%) and 0-2 (5.78%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Koln | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
36.35% ( -0.54) | 24.04% ( -0) | 39.61% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 61.22% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.84% ( -0.03) | 41.16% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.44% ( -0.03) | 63.56% ( 0.03) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.43% ( -0.29) | 22.57% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.84% ( -0.43) | 56.16% ( 0.43) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.06% ( 0.24) | 20.94% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.32% ( 0.38) | 53.68% ( -0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Koln | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.06% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.39% Total : 36.35% | 1-1 @ 10.99% 2-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.04% | 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.3% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.79% Total : 39.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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