SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Mainz 05 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.74%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 16.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.63%) and 1-3 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
16.07% ( 0.08) | 18.19% ( 0) | 65.74% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 60.87% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.91% ( 0.15) | 32.09% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.33% ( 0.18) | 53.66% ( -0.18) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( 0.19) | 32.99% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.42% ( 0.21) | 69.58% ( -0.21) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.85% ( 0.03) | 9.15% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.96% ( 0.06) | 31.04% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 1.86% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 16.07% | 1-1 @ 8.01% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.29% Total : 18.19% | 1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.63% ( 0)0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 6.88% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 4.56% ( 0)2-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 4.11% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 2.18% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.08% Total : 65.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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