SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
46.4% ( 0.91) | 26.23% ( -0.03) | 27.37% ( -0.88) |
| Both teams to score 50.12% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.09% ( -0.36) | 53.91% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.64% ( -0.3) | 75.36% ( 0.3) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.8% ( 0.28) | 23.2% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.9% ( 0.4) | 57.1% ( -0.4) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.27% ( -0.88) | 34.73% ( 0.89) |
