Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 25.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
0.75) 
-1.12) 
