Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 41.55%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.
