Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.01%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-0 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
