Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
