Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
