Fresh off saving two match points on a rain-interrupted Tuesday, Sofia Kenin faces Jasmine Paolini at the Dubai Tennis Championships on Wednesday, seeking to halt the defending champion's six-match winning run in Wednesday's third round.
Kenin edged two tiebreaks in her second-round 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) triumph over Doha quarter-finalist Marta Kostyuk to set up a third meeting on the WTA Tour with her Italian opponent, against whom she has never lost entering their forthcoming match.
Match preview
Kenin should be encouraged by her progress in Dubai, where she has defeated 16th seed Donna Vekic in round one and Kostyuk in round two to snap a losing run at the event and set up Wednesday's match with Paolini.
The American player entered this year's WTA 1000 tournament on a five-match losing run in the competition following defeats to Viktoria Hruncakova in 2019, Elena Rybakina in 2020, Jelena Ostapenko two years later, Marie Bouzkova in 2023 and Sorana Cirstea 12 months ago.
Defeating Vekic on Sunday was the world No. 56's first win at the tournament in six years — a 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 triumph over Daria Kasatkina — and she bids for a third consecutive success at the 1000 event for the first time.
Having already taken out a seeded opponent in Vekic and eliminated her Ukrainian opponent in three thrilling sets that lasted two hours and 39 minutes, the former world No. 4 and one-time Grand Slam champion bids to stun Paolini in Wednesday's tussle.
With her latest success, Kenin has now improved to 9-5 this season, with four victories in her last five on the tour, highlighting some momentum for the 26-year-old.
That run will face its sternest test against a motivated player bidding for a successful title defence at the second 1000 tournament this season.
Although the 29-year-old was interrupted by rain on match point, she avoided losing focus in Tuesday's 6-2, 7-5 success over qualifier Eva Lys.
Despite the straight-set victory, Paolini lost serve three times in the second-round match, with the German converting from five break chances engineered, possibly indicating a weakness for Wednesday's opponent to exploit.
Even though the fourth seed broke her opponent's serve six times from ten chances, the defending champion must avoid sloppy games on serve against Kenin to extend her ongoing six-match unbeaten run.
Excluding qualifying, Paolini has improved to 6-1 in Dubai, with her only defeat in main-draw matches coming on her tournament debut loss to Madison Keys in 2023.
The fourth seed has seldom done it the easy way, though, evident by two of said six wins going the distance and the 2024 semi-final straight-set win over Cirstea lasting nearly two hours; she may need to battle hard again to snap a losing record against the five-time WTA champion.
Tournament so far
Sofia Kenin:
First round: vs. Donna Vekic 7-5 6-3
Second round: vs. Marta Kostyuk 5-7 7-6[7] 7-6[5]
Jasmine Paolini:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Eva Lys 6-2 7-5
Head To Head
Guangzhou (2019) - Quarter-finals: Kenin 7-5 6-1
Rome (2019) - Round of 64: Kenin 6-1 6-2
Although Kenin has won both meetings with Paolini, Wednesday will be the pair's first on the women's tour since 2019, when the American notched success in straight sets.
Much has changed for the Italian player since that encounter in Guangzhou, with the then-qualifier now ranked No. 4 in the world.
Kenin enters the third-round match with a 2-4 win-loss record against top-10 players in the last year (12-24 overall); the American player has been defeated in her recent two meetings with such players, losing to Qinwen Zheng in Tokyo and falling to countrywoman Coco Gauff at this year's Australian Open.
We say: Paolini to win in three sets
The fourth seed should outwit a player who has lost four of her last five against top-10 opponents, with defeats to Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Zheng and Gauff strikingly all straight-set losses.
Although the Italian No. 1 could face some resistance from Kenin in the third round, Paolini is backed to advance to the quarter-final to face Rybakina or Paula Badosa.
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