Fresh off a topsy-turvy win over 16th seed Liudmila Samsonova, Jelena Ostapenko takes on fourth seed Jasmine Paolini in one of Wednesday's highly-anticipated third-round matches at the Qatar Open.
The Italian No. 1 snapped a 0-3 career record in Doha by defeating Caroline Garcia in Tuesday's second round and aims for a second success to advance to Friday's quarter-finals.
Match preview
Ostapenko has not dropped a set in Doha this week, but the world No. 37 needed to dig deep to edge two tight sets against Samsonova, coming through 7-6(5), 7-5.
The eight-time WTA champion blew a 4-1 lead in the opening set and trailed 6-5 before refocusing to force a first-set tie-break, which she took before claiming the second.
The former world No. 5 must play cleaner tennis, both on serve and return, to get the better of Paolini, having dropped serve five times against her Russian opponent while breaking the 16th seed six times.
Ostapenko's latest victory was her 17th in Doha, and the 2016 finalist and 2022 semi-finalist aims to take out a top-10 player to reach her third quarter-final at the event and record an 18th career triumph.
Standing in her way is Paolini, who finally got a victory in Doha on Tuesday after three defeats in previous years to Elise Mertens in 2022, Leylah Fernandez two years ago and Emma Navarro 12 months back.
The Italian No. 1 needed one hour and 12 minutes to secure a 6-3, 6-4 success over Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia, avoiding the fate that befell four top-10 players who exited in the second round: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Qinwen Zheng and Paula Badosa.
That maiden success at the Qatar Open was aided by winning 73.5% of points on her first deliveries and 59% on her seconds, improving to 5-2 for the season, and she seeks a sixth success to set up a last-eight encounter with Ons Jabeur or Sofia Kenin.
With the draw seemingly opening up after several top-10 exits, the two-time WTA champion, who claimed a 1000 title last year in Dubai, will back herself for a deep run in Doha.
However, the Italian player must overcome her hard-hitting Latvian opponent in their first meeting since Ostapenko's US Open round-one success in three sets two years back to progress to the quarters in Qatar.
Tournament so far
Jelena Ostapenko:
First round: vs. Aoi Ito 6-2 6-1
Second round: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 7-6[5] 7-5
Jasmine Paolini:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Caroline Garcia 6-3 6-4
Head To Head
US Open (2023) - First round: Ostapenko 6-2 4-6 6-1
Although both women faced off in qualifying for the Burnie International in 2014, Ostapenko was the victor in the pair's only main draw match-up at the 2023 US Open.
Much has changed for Paolini since that defeat, with the 29-year-old now one of the leading players on the women's tour.
Ostapenko enters Wednesday's match with a 21-33 career record against top-10 opponents, losing seven of the most recent 10 against the elite.
We say: Paolini to win in two sets
Despite reaching one final and one semi-final in Doha, Ostapenko has typically come unstuck against top-10 players, highlighted by a 3-7 win-loss record in the last 10 match-ups with such opponents, having failed to secure a victory against one since 2023.
Thus, Paolini is backed to advance to a maiden quarter-final in Qatar at the 2017 French Open winner's expense.
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