After a disappointing first Grand Slam showing this year, Jasmine Paolini will try to bounce back at the Qatar Open, beginning her tournament against Caroline Garcia on Tuesday.
Last month, Paolini was ousted in the round of 32 at the Australian Open versus Ukrainian Elina Svitolina (6-2 4-6 0-6) while Garcia got past Yue Yuan in her opening match of this tournament 6-1 7-6.
Match preview
It was a tough end to 2024 for Jasmine Paolini, and the Italian will not be pleased with how this year began, as she had no answer for her opponent's serve in the round of 32 at the Aussie Open in January, conceding seven aces and failing to register one herself.
Since losing the 2024 Wimbledon final to Barbora Krejcikova (2-6 6-2 4-6), Paolini has not made it further than the quarter-finals of any singles tournament, losing out in the last eight of the Wuhan Open in October versus Qinwen Zheng (2-6 6-3 3-6).
Her previous appearance at this tournament was rather forgettable as well, with Paolini suffering a straight sets defeat to American Emma Navarro in her first match (3-6 5-7).
Only once in her last 12 singles events on the WTA tour has she been beaten in her first match, losing to Rebecca Sramkova in two sets at the BJK Cup Finals in November (6-2 6-1).
So far this year, she has a first-serve percentage of 66.9% while winning 72.5% of her service games, despite registering just nine aces.
The 29-year-old has won fewer than half of her second serves in 2025 (47.3%) but has managed to save 54.8% of her break points thus far.
In her opening match over the weekend, Caroline Garcia did enough to move on, hitting three aces while failing to concede one herself.
Garcia won three of her seven break-point opportunities against Yuan and 74% of her first serves, which made a massive difference.
As a result, she was able to make it a step further when compared to last year's tournament when Naomi Osaka ousted her in the round of 64 5-7 4-6.
On Tuesday the French woman has a chance to make it beyond the round of 32 of a WTA singles event for only the second time in her last eight tournaments on tour, advancing to the semi-finals of the Guadalajara Open in September.
So far this year, Garcia has a first serve percentage of 69.9%, winning just over 60% (60.3%) of such points, but she has cleaned up the errors and is yet to post a single double fault in 2025.
Although she has only won 22% of her break points, she has been strong on serve, winning 71.4% of her service games so far this year.
Tournament so far
Caroline Garcia:
Round of 64: vs. Yue Yuan 6-1 7-6 (7-5)
Head To Head
US Open (2020) - First round: Garcia wins 6-3 6-2
Ladies Lausanne Open (2022) - First round: Garcia win 6-3 6-3
Poland Open (2022) - Semi-finals: Garcia wins 6-1 6-2
Open 6 Sens (2023) - Quarter-finals: Garcia wins 7-5 7-5
Zhengzhou Open (2023) - Second round: Paolini wins 3-6 6-4 7-5
Billie Jean King Cup finals (2023): Paolini wins 7-6 5-7 6-4
United Cup (2024) - Round Robin: Garcia wins 6-4 5-7 6-4
Minuta Madrid Open (2024) - Third round: Paolini wins 6-3 6-2
Garcia dominated the first four matches between these two, with a first serve percentage of over 70 in each of those victories, while hitting over 20 aces.
It was not until the 2023 Zhengzhou Open that the Italian finally bested her by winning 56 of her second serves, while Garcia hit five double faults.
When they met in Madrid last April, Paolini was sensational on serve, winning 88% of her first serves, while also claiming four break points.
We say: Paolini to win in three sets
Garcia always seems to hit her share of aces against Paolini, but the latter has managed to counter that lately with her solid ground strokes and net presence.
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