Sports Mole previews Saturday's Qatar Open final between Amanda Anisimova and Jelena Ostapenko, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

A first-time WTA 1000 champion will be crowned in Saturday's Qatar Open final when unseeded players Amanda Anisimova and Jelena Ostapenko tussle in the title match.  

After defeating five top-30 opponents en route to the final, Anisimova bids to become the first American player since Monica Seles in 2002 to claim the title in Doha, while Ostapenko aims to right the wrongs of her 2016 defeat at the last hurdle against Carla Suarez Navarro to claim the second-biggest crown of her career.

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Match preview

Ostapenko's win over Iga Swiatek saw the Latvian, currently ranked No. 37 in the world, become the lowest-ranked finalist in Qatar, but Anisimova swiftly eclipsed the woman she faces on Saturday after dispatching Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3, 6-3 in the second semi-final.  

Ranked No. 41 in the world, no player placed lower on the women's tour had ever advanced to the title match in Doha before the 23-year-old American player, who has overcome five top-30 players — Victoria Azarenka (No. 30), Paula Badosa (No. 9), Leylah Fernandez (No. 27), Marta Kostyuk (No. 21) and Alexandrova (No. 26) — to reach her second WTA 1000 final.

The two-time tour winner fell to Jessica Pegula in Toronto in August last year despite forcing a decider, and she aims to use the lessons from that loss to secure the most significant success of her career.

Beating Alexandrova, undefeated in eight matches entering Friday's semi-final, required the 23-year-old to save nine break points against an in-form opponent to improve to 8-1 in Doha ahead of Saturday's title match.

The American's only loss at this tournament was against the woman she faces — a second-round tussle that went the distance in 2022 — but Anisimova bids to be on the right side of the result this time to secure the first WTA 1000 title of 2025.

Ostapenko will back herself to inflict another Doha defeat on Anisimova, fresh off another victory over Swiatek on Friday to improve to 5-0 in her head-to-head against the Polish star.  

No active player on the women's tour has a positive record against the world No. 2, evident on Friday as a frustrated Swiatek threw her racquet in annoyance at the sit-down in set two, trailing 3-0 after losing the opening set 6-3.

Ostapenko's reaction to that uncharacteristic outburst from her opponent reflected the Latvian's awareness of having the three-time Doha champion's number, and she went on to claim the second set 6-1 to seal a 6-3, 6-1 triumph to put paid to the Pole's four-peat dream and snap the second seed's 15-match winning run in Qatar.

The upshot of a stunning week in Doha means Ostapenko is now one win away from the second-biggest title of her career to follow her French Open title in 2017, nine years after reaching the same stage in 2016 only to fall to Suarez Navarro despite claiming the opening set.

Back in a WTA 1000 final after a six-year absence since reaching the 2018 decider in Miami and a third overall, the 27-year-old eight-time WTA Tour champion aims to be third-time lucky at such events after 2016's Doha disappointment and the Miami letdown two years later.

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Tournament so far

Amanda Anisimova:

First round: vs. Victoria Azarenka 6-3 7-5
Second round: vs. Paula Badosa 6-4 6-3
Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 6-3 6-0
Quarter-final: vs. Marta Kostyuk 4-6 7-5 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3 6-3

Jelena Ostapenko:

First round: vs. Aoi Ito 6-2 6-1
Second round: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 7-6[5] 7-5
Third round: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Ons Jabeur 6-2 6-2
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-1

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Head To Head

Doha (2022) - Second round: Ostapenko 6-3 4-6 6-4

Both women faced off in Doha three years back in their only WTA Tour meeting, with Ostapenko winning sets one and three to edge Anisimova.

The American player, who has dropped a set en route to the final, holds a 2-2 record in title matches, with her previous three title matches going the distance — Toronto against Pegula (2024), Melbourne against Aliaksandra Sasnovich (2022) and Astra Sharma (2019); three of Anisimova's four tour-level finals have been on hard courts, with defeats to Pegula and Hsieh Su-Wei in Hiroshima seven years back.

As for Ostapenko, the Latvian enters Saturday's final on a three-match winning run in title matches, even if her overall 8-8 win-loss record in such matches highlights the 27-year-old's mixed results.

Strikingly, the eight-time tour winner's last three championship matches have been decided in straight sets, beating Alexandrova (6-2, 6-3) in Linz in 2024, Daria Kasatkina (6-3, 6-2) in Adelaide 12 months ago and Barbora Krejcikova (7-6, 6-4) in Birmingham two years back.

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We say: Ostapenko to win in three sets

Saturday's final between unseeded opponents is close to call, with Anisimova defeating top opponents en route to her second title match at this level, while Ostapenko's ball-striking and execution have been top-tier all week to improve to 6-4 this season after entering Doha 1-4 in 2025.

Although Anisimova packs a punch and some supreme hard-hitting is anticipated from both players, the Latvian's adeptness at playing cleaner tennis should see her notch a ninth WTA title and first 1000 crown at the American's expense.

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