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Preview: Indian Wells: Tommy Paul vs. Daniil Medvedev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Indian Wells: Tommy Paul vs. Daniil Medvedev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Indian Wells fourth-round match between Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Fresh off a 50th ATP 1000 win, Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev tussle in Tuesday's Indian Wells Masters fourth round in a rematch of last year's semi-final contest at Indian Wells.

Paul, whose 2024 performance was a career-best, aims to avenge last year's loss to the well-rested Russian, who spent little time on court on Sunday because Alex Michelsen retired due to illness after only two games.


Match preview

Paul's 6-3, 7-5 success over 2021 Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie was the American's 50th at ATP 1000 events, emulating Taylor Fritz among active American players on the ATP Tour, to extend the 10th seed's winning streak.

Having withdrawn before taking to the court against countryman Marcos Giron in Acapulco, the last man to beat Paul was Denis Shapovalov in Dallas, meaning the world No. 11 enters Tuesday's last-16 match on a three-match winning sequence.

Defeating Norrie improved Paul to 12-3 for the season, and the 27-year-old aims for a 13th victory in 2025 at the expense of his Russian opponent.

Having not progressed beyond the fourth round at Indian Wells until last year — two round-four runs in 2021 and 2023, either side of a third-round exit in 2022 — the No. 2-ranked American player aims to advance to back-to-back quarter-finals at his home event.

However, the 10th seed must get the better of Medvedev, against whom he rarely wins, when both men face off for the fifth time on the men's tour.

The fifth seed's last defeat in the Californian desert to anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz came in the third round in 2022 when he exited in three sets to veteran Gael Monfils.

Since then, the Russian star has gone 12-0 against opponents not named Alcaraz in making consecutive title matches in 2023 and last year, strikingly defeating a handful of American players during the ongoing run: Brandon Nakashima and Frances Tiafoe in 2023, Sebastian Korda and Paul 12 months ago and Michelsen in his round-three match at the current tournament.

Facing the young American on Sunday promised much, only for the 31st seed to withdraw after two games, effectively giving the former world No. 1 a day off in the desert.

Keen to make the most of that rest, Medvedev, who has notched 200 hard-court victories since 2020, aims to avoid his earliest exit at the event in three years as he bids for another quarter-final appearance this season to follow Marseille, Doha and Dubai.

While the 20-time ATP champion has yet to claim a title since the 2023 1000 tournament in Rome, reaching the latter stages of events stands him in good stead if he is to end that wait for his 21st crown, highlighting the importance of defeating Paul for the fourth time.


Tournament so far

Tommy Paul:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Tristan Boyer 6-3 6-1
Third round: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-3 7-5

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Yunchaokete Bu 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret


Head To Head

Rome Masters (2024) - Round of 16: Paul 6-1 6-4

Indian Wells (2024) - Semi-final: Medvedev 1-6 7-6(3) 6-2

Beijing (2023) - Round of 32: Medvedev 6-2 6-1

French Open (2021) - Second round: Medvedev 3-6 6-1 6-4 6-3

While Medvedev leads their head-to-head 3-1, Paul's only victory in Rome last year ended Medvedev's attempt to retain his 1000 title in the Italian capital.

However, the Russian player has secured two wins over the United States star on hard courts, including last year's semi-final despite Paul claiming the opening set.

Paul enters Tuesday's match with a mixed record against top-10 players in the last 52 weeks, winning three and losing four of seven against the elite.

Nevertheless, one of such wins was against Medvedev, and the 10th seed aims for consecutive victories over the 20-time titlist.


We say: Medvedev to win in three sets

Medvedev has cut down on the double faults since exiting in Rotterdam this year to Mattia Bellucci, against whom he double-faulted eight times, with the four in the quarter-final loss to Tallon Griekspoor in Dubai being the highest in the 11 matches since.

The Russian, who struggled with serve last year and carried such issues into this season — eight and nine double faults in his opening two rounds at the Australian Open and six and eight in his two matches in Rotterdam — has seemingly overcome those challenges, giving him a satisfactory base to work with.

If the 20-time ATP champion does not suffer a relapse on his service games, he is backed to defeat America's No. 2 player, who has lost four of the recent five against top-10 players before Tuesday's contest.

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Read more about Tommy Paul Daniil Medvedev Carlos Alcaraz Sebastian Korda Brandon Nakashima Frances Tiafoe Gael Monfils Cameron Norrie Taylor Fritz Denis Shapovalov Marcos Giron Alex Michelsen Mattia Bellucci Tallon Griekspoor Tennis
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