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Preview: Indian Wells: Sloane Stephens vs. Sofia Kenin - prediction, form, head-to-head

:Headline: Preview: Indian Wells: Sloane Stephens vs. Sofia Kenin - prediction, form, head-to-head:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's BNP Paribas Open first-round match between Sloane Stephens and Sofia Kenin, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
Sports Mole

Winless in 2025, former Indian Wells quarter-finalist Sloane Stephens takes on countrywoman Sofia Kenin in Wednesday's BNP Paribas Open first-round contest.

This week's all-American encounter is a rematch of the 2023 meeting at this stage, and the in-form Kenin hopes for a repeat success in the battle of former Grand Slam champions in the Californian desert.


Match preview

The new year has not been kind to former world No. 3 Stephens, whose losing run continued in last week's event in Merida, where she exited against qualifier Petra Martic.

That 6-2, 6-3 defeat extended the 2017 US Open champion's winless sequence in 2025 — she has lost four on the trot — and stretched the 31-year-old's run without success to 10 matches since last year's Wimbledon first round.

Since beating Elsa Jacquemot at the Championships, Stephens has taken just two sets from 10 matches — forcing deciders in defeats to Clara Burel at the US Open and in this season's Auckland disappointment against countrywoman Ann Li — magnifying the eight-time WTA champion's struggles.

Unable to even take a set off opponents, the 31-year-old enters her 14th main draw at Indian Wells seeking to snap her losing run to set up a second-round meeting with 12th seed Daria Kasatkina.

The 2017 US Open champion and one-time WTA 1000 winner (Miami 2018) holds a 13-13 main draw record at the BNP Paribas Open, where she reached the quarter-final in 2014, and is seeking a 14th triumph.

While Stephens is not the favourite against Kenin, the eight-time titlist hopes her superior success in the desert stands her in good stead in this all-American first-round battle.

Kenin has never advanced past the second round at Indian Wells (2018, 2019 and 2023), with round-one exits in 2024 and 2022 sandwiching the 26-year-old's round-two run two years ago.

Excluding qualifying, where she holds a 2-2 record, the 2020 Australian Open champion is 3-5 overall in the main draw at the imminent WTA 1000 event, having lost her previous two matches against Viktoriya Tomova last year and Elena Rybakina in 2023.

Kenin's last victory at the tournament came against this week's round-one opponent, whom she defeated in straight sets before falling to Rybakina two years ago.

Despite the one-time Grand Slam champion's underwhelming history in the desert, an encouraging performance in the Middle East swing makes her the favourite to advance at Stephens's expense.

After a first-round defeat by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in Abu Dhabi, Kenin reached the third round in Doha and progressed to the quarter-final in Dubai, where she eliminated an injured defending champion Jasmine Paolini in the round of 16, highlighting the former world No. 4's improved form heading into the third WTA 1000 event of 2025.

Including qualifying, Kenin is now 10-6 in 2025 — 8-6 in main draws — and she bids for an 11th success this season and ninth in main tournaments by getting the better of an out-of-sorts countrywoman.


Head To Head

Indian Wells (2023) - First round: Kenin 6-4 6-1

Canadian Open (2022) - First round: 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5

Stephens and Kenin have one victory apiece heading into their third match-up on the WTA Tour.

Although Kenin claimed a fairly straightforward success at Indian Wells two years ago, the women's first meeting on the hard courts of Toronto in 2022 went the distance, with the 2017 US Open champion winning the three-hour contest 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5.

The eight-time WTA champion is 0-4 in 2025, significantly inferior to her countrywoman's 8-6 win-loss record in main draws (10-6 overall) before their all-American tussle in the Californian desert.


We say: Kenin to win in two sets

Kenin showed some of the form that took her to a maiden Grand Slam title Down Under five years ago in the Middle East WTA 1000 events, and the in-form 26-year-old is backed to outwit Stephens with her on-court variety and shot execution to set up a second-round match with Kasatkina.

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Read more about Sloane Stephens Sofia Kenin Petra Martic Clara Burel Elsa Jacquemot Daria Kasatkina Ann Li Viktoriya Tomova Elena Rybakina Jasmine Paolini Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Tennis
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