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Preview: Indian Wells: Jack Draper vs. Joao Fonseca - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Indian Wells: Jack Draper vs. Joao Fonseca - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Saturday's BNP Paribas Open second-round match between Jack Draper and Joao Fonseca, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Teenage sensation Joao Fonseca seeks his second top-20 win this year when he takes on 13th seed and world No. 14 Jack Draper in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.

The Brazilian defeated Jacob Fearnley in the opening round at Indian Wells on Thursday, and he aims for consecutive victories over Britons by stunning the British No. 1 in his second career match in the Californian desert.


Match preview

Fonseca denied observers an all-British second-round match by defeating Fearnley on Thursday, and the 18-year-old needed to dig deep to seal a 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 first-round success over the world No. 81.

Having claimed the opening set and lost the second, the 18-year-old found himself down a break at 3-1 to the all-or-nothing Fearnley, whose level and execution dropped as the sensation reeled off five consecutive games to claim the decider.

With that success, Fonseca improved to 7-3 this season, and the recent champion in Buenos Aires is aiming for his eighth victory of 2025.

The 18-year-old, competing at the ATP 1000 event for the first time, seeks a third career Masters win after beating Alex Michelsen in Madrid last year and Fearnley in round one in California.

Fonseca already secured the biggest victory of his career against Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, but he could clinch his second biggest by defeating his third top-20 opponent in Draper.

The British No. 1 returns to action for the first time since losing the Doha final to Rublev, a defeat that ended the 23-year-old's four-match winning run.

Entering this year's Indian Wells at 7-2 this season, the only two men to have beaten the world No. 14 this season are Carlos Alcaraz and Rublev, and the left-handed Draper aims to prevent Fonseca from being the third.

However, the two-time ATP champion has not secured a victory in the desert since 2023, when he notched a straight-set success over Andy Murray, but that triumph has been followed by defeats by Alcaraz in the round of 16 two years ago and Christopher O'Connell last year.

Aiming to prevent a third consecutive defeat at the BNP Paribas Open, Draper must avoid losing to the teenage star to improve his 3-2 record at the ATP 1000 event.

The 13th seed's impressive record against players ranked outside the top 50 in the last year suggests he should improve a 19-1 record, but the two-time titlist has arguably not faced anyone with Fonseca's talent and potential in that period heading into the pair's first meeting on the men's tour.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: Bye

Joao Fonseca:

First round: vs. Jacob Fearnley 6-2 1-6 6-3


Head To Head

With Draper and Fonseca facing off for the first time on the ATP Tour, the victor will take a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head.

The Brazilian has a 2-1 record against top-20 players, having outlasted Arthur Fils at the Next Gen Finals last year and Rublev in the Aussie Open opening round in January.

However, Ugo Humbert snapped the teenager's streak against such opponents in the Davis Cup last month, and losing to the Frenchman began a five-match winning sequence for the 18-year-old until Alexandre Muller beat Fonseca in straight sets in Rio de Janeiro.

Defeating Draper requires the rising star to snap the British player's 14-match winning run against players ranked outside the top 50, with Jesper De Jong the last man ranked 51st or lower to beat the 23-year-old at last year's French Open.


We say: Draper to win in three sets

With Fonseca carrying an undoubted threat with his court coverage, shot selection and execution, the Brazilian's weapons should worry Draper.

However, the battling Brit is expected to edge this second-round contest in three sets, advancing to the third round and ending a losing run in the Californian desert.

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Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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Read more about Jack Draper Joao Fonseca Jacob Fearnley Jesper De Jong Alexandre Muller Ugo Humbert Arthur Fils Andy Murray Carlos Alcaraz Alex Michelsen Andrey Rublev Tennis
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