Sports Mole previews Friday's BNP Paribas Open second-round match between Alexander Zverev and Tallon Griekspoor, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Aiming to put his post-Australian Open blues behind him, Alexander Zverev begins his Indian Wells campaign against Tallon Griekspoor in Friday's second-round contest.  

The top seed, who took ill during the South American clay swing, has barely strung wins together since reaching the title match Down Under, and he seeks a seventh ATP Tour victory over his Dutch opponent, who outlasted Miomir Kecmanovic in a two-hour-15-minute three-setter in Wednesday's first round.

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Match preview

Zverev has barely had any joy since falling to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final in January, with the German star barely pulling up any trees in the South American clay swing in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro before suffering more disappointment on the hard courts of Acapulco in late February.

Having gone 8-1 to start the year, the 27-year-old went 4-3 across the tournaments post-Aussie Open, leaving the top seed and world No. 2 at 12-4 entering Indian Wells in indifferent form.

The two-time quarter-finalist in the desert is 13-8 overall in main draw matches at the ongoing tournament, notably starting this year's tournament with a 5-2 win-loss record at the Masters 1000 event.

Zverev's two defeats during said run were against Daniil Medvedev in 2023 in the last 16 and Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-final 12 months ago, with both men advancing to each year's final — the Spanish sensation beat Medvedev in both title matches.

Despite his modest results heading into the first ATP 1000 event of 2025, the German will back himself for a maiden title at Indian Wells and eighth Masters crown over the next fortnight, given Sinner's suspension, Novak Djokovic's form concerns, Medvedev's performances sliding and all the pressure on Alcaraz for a three-peat.

Admittedly, the German star cannot afford to look that far ahead considering the threat of Griekspoor, even if the Dutchman has lost the previous five match-ups with the top seed.

The 28-year-old needed two hours and 15 minutes to get the better of Kecmanovic in his tournament-opening 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 success to record his eighth success in 2025.

Despite exiting in the opening round at the Aussie Open, Griekspoor has enjoyed a positive run before the BNP Paribas Open, having reached the quarter-final in Montpellier, the last 16 in Rotterdam and Doha and the semi-final in Dubai before falling to eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Middle East.

Entering Indian Wells at 8-5 this season before facing Zverev, the former world No. 21 also aims to improve his 3-3 record in the Californian desert.

Although Zverev, who beat the Dutchman in last year's third round, holds the historical edge, the 28-year-old hopes to exploit the recent uncertainty in the world No. 2's results to snap his five-match losing sequence against the 23-time ATP champion.

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Tournament so far

Alexander Zverev:

First round: Bye

Tallon Griekspoor:

First round: Miomir Kecmanovic 6-7[5] 6-4 6-3

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Head To Head

Paris Masters (2024) - Second round: Zverev 7-6(2) 6-3

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Third round: Zverev 7-6(6) 2-6 7-6(5)

Roland Garros (2024) - Third round: Zverev 3-6 6-4 6-2 4-6 7-6(3)

Indian Wells (2024) - Round of 32: Zverev 7-6(7) 6-3

Canadian Open (2023) - Round of 64: Zverev 6-4 7-6(3)

Rotterdam (2023) - Round of 16: Griekspoor 4-6 6-3 6-4

Wimbledon (2021) - First round: Zverev 6-3 6-4 6-1

Despite his 6-1 advantage in their head-to-head, Zverev has not always had it his own way in matches between both players.

Griekspoor has forced deciders in three of his six defeats and beat the German No. 1 player in three sets in 2023's Rotterdam last-16 match.

Although the Dutch player has not defeated Zverev since that 2023 triumph, both men went the distance at last year's Roland Garros and in Shanghai months later.

Success for Griekspoor will see the two-time ATP champion claim his fifth top-10 triumph, improving a 4-27 career record against elite opponents; the world No. 43 ended a four-match losing run against the leading players with success over Medvedev in Dubai.

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We say: Zverev to win in three sets

Friday's match-up is a potential banana skin for Zverev, given Griekspoor's battling qualities and the German's unexceptional run before the first Masters tournament of the season.

Regardless, the top seed should avoid a shock exit, even if the Dutchman is expected to force another decider in their eighth meeting.

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