SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mali | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Namibia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for South Africa had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.73%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest South Africa win was 0-1 (12.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rwanda would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rwanda | Draw | South Africa |
38.41% ( -0.11) | 30.43% ( -0.01) | 31.16% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 40.59% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.28% ( 0.06) | 66.72% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.92% ( 0.04) | 85.08% ( -0.04) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.29% ( -0.04) | 33.71% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.63% ( -0.04) | 70.37% ( 0.04) |
| South Africa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.23% ( 0.13) | 38.77% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.5% ( 0.12) | 75.5% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rwanda | Draw | South Africa |
| 1-0 @ 14.2% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 7.32% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.8% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.65% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 38.4% | 1-1 @ 13.46% 0-0 @ 13.06% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.42% Total : 30.41% | 0-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.56% Total : 31.15% |
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