SM
| Current Third Round Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | North Korea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Kyrgyzstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | United Arab Emirates | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Third Round Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uzbekistan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | North Korea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Kyrgyzstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | United Arab Emirates | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 63.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 15.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Kyrgyzstan win it was 0-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Kyrgyzstan |
63.57% ( -3.78) | 21.12% ( 1.63) | 15.31% ( 2.15) |
| Both teams to score 48.56% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.73% ( -2.54) | 47.27% ( 2.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.5% ( -2.4) | 69.5% ( 2.41) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.8% ( -1.89) | 14.2% ( 1.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.07% ( -3.83) | 41.93% ( 3.84) |
| Kyrgyzstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.61% ( 1.56) | 43.39% ( -1.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.38% ( 1.28) | 79.62% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Kyrgyzstan |
| 1-0 @ 12.03% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.41)2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.84)3-1 @ 6.38% ( -0.4)4-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.71)4-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.44)3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.41)4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.27)Other @ 2.53% Total : 63.56% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 0.77) 0-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.63)2-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.21)Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.11% | 0-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.72) 1-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.49)0-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.38)1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.52% Total : 15.31% |
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