Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 48.76%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.3%) and 1-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Ghana win it was 1-0 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
-0.33) 
0.38) 
