SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 52.93%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
52.93% ( -0.04) | 23.12% ( 0.03) | 23.96% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.77% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.36% ( -0.13) | 43.64% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.97% ( -0.13) | 66.03% ( 0.13) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.52% ( -0.06) | 16.48% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.81% ( -0.11) | 46.2% ( 0.11) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.98% ( -0.06) | 32.03% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.51% ( -0.07) | 68.49% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.16% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.26% Total : 52.93% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 6.17% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.34% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0)Other @ 2.61% Total : 23.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 32 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 29 |
| 3 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
| 9 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 5 |
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