SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 71.09%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 12.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 3-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.04%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
71.09% ( -0.09) | 16.12% ( 0.04) | 12.79% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 59.89% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.66% ( -0.06) | 29.34% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.61% ( -0.08) | 50.39% ( 0.08) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.68% ( -0.03) | 7.32% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 73.54% ( -0.09) | 26.46% ( 0.09) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.62% ( 0.03) | 35.38% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.86% ( 0.03) | 72.14% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.85% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.17% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.72% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.42% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 3.29% Total : 71.09% | 1-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.59% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 16.12% | 1-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.12% Total : 12.79% |
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