Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 61.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Cardiff MU win it was 1-0 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.