SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 38%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
36.87% ( 0.19) | 25.13% ( 0.08) | 38% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.75% ( -0.36) | 46.25% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.46% ( -0.34) | 68.54% ( 0.34) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.39% ( -0.06) | 24.6% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.89% ( -0.09) | 59.11% ( 0.09) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76% ( -0.3) | 24% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.75% ( -0.43) | 58.25% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.87% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.87% Total : 36.87% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.12% | 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.98% Total : 38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 44 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 27 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 22 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 21 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 14 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 13 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 11 |
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