SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 32.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Cerro Largo |
41.22% ( 1.64) | 25.93% ( 0.14) | 32.85% ( -1.77) |
| Both teams to score 53.85% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.61% ( -0.96) | 50.39% ( 0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.67% ( -0.86) | 72.33% ( 0.86) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.81% ( 0.42) | 24.18% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.49% ( 0.59) | 58.51% ( -0.58) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.03% ( -1.58) | 28.97% ( 1.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.13% ( -2) | 64.86% ( 2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.5) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.43)3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 1.87% Total : 41.22% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.27)2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.22)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.58% Total : 32.85% |
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