Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vorskla Poltava win with a probability of 49.92%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 24.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vorskla Poltava win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Mariupol win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vorskla Poltava would win this match.
