Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 74.8%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Dumiense had a probability of 10.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 2-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 3-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.77%), while for a Dumiense win it was 1-2 (3.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
0.02) 
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