Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 77.15%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Canelas 2010 had a probability of 8.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.97%) and 1-2 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.65%), while for a Canelas 2010 win it was 2-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
