Having recovered their form in recent weeks, Besiktas should have enough to win on home soil in this Istanbul derby.
Istanbulspor have proved they are a threat, but the sides they have beaten in the last three games have all been a level below Besiktas.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 80.16%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Istanbulspor had a probability of 7.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.86%), while for a Istanbulspor win it was 1-2 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
