Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 61.69%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.27%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.08) 
