SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.97%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Lazio |
22.2% ( 0.01) | 24.71% ( 0) | 53.09% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.62% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.91% ( -0.01) | 52.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.19% ( -0.01) | 73.81% ( 0.01) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.7% | 38.3% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.94% | 75.06% |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.42% ( -0.01) | 19.58% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.49% ( -0.01) | 51.51% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Lazio |
| 1-0 @ 7.2% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.63% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.8% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.47% 3-0 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.54% Total : 22.2% | 1-1 @ 11.73% 0-0 @ 7.5% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.59% Other @ 0.88% Total : 24.7% | 0-1 @ 12.22% 0-2 @ 9.97% ( -0)1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.42% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.2% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.5% 0-4 @ 2.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.12% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.86% Total : 53.08% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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