SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 70.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Cremonese had a probability of 10.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.42%) and 3-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.97%), while for a Cremonese win it was 0-1 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | Cremonese |
70.02% ( 0.47) | 19.09% ( 0.02) | 10.89% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 42.55% ( -1.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.44% ( -1.36) | 48.56% ( 1.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.32% ( -1.25) | 70.68% ( 1.25) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.31% ( -0.27) | 12.68% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.12% ( -0.56) | 38.88% ( 0.56) |
| Cremonese Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.74% ( -1.77) | 51.26% ( 1.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.48% ( -1.21) | 85.52% ( 1.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | Cremonese |
| 2-0 @ 13.86% ( 0.49) 1-0 @ 13.42% ( 0.6)3-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.24)2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 6.37% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.17)5-0 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.72% Total : 70.01% | 1-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.5% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.52% Total : 19.09% | 0-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.1% Total : 10.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 90 |
| 2 | Lazio | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 74 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 38 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 72 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 64 |
| 6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 63 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 62 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 53 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 36 |
| R | SpeziaSpezia | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 31 |
| R | Cremonese | 38 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 27 |
| R | Sampdoria | 38 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 71 | -47 | 19 |
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