Though goals have started to dry up since Duvan Zapata was struck down by injury - at least by their own free-scoring standards - Atalanta can edge out their hosts at the Olimpico thanks to a squad with several attacking options.
While Lazio are equally adept at finding the net, much relies on a few key cogs to turn smoothly, and the combination of defensive lapses and some integral absences could tilt the balance in their visitors' favour.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
