SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 34.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Queen of the South | Draw | Dumbarton |
39.9% ( -0.18) | 25.42% ( 0.03) | 34.68% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 56.02% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.21% ( -0.12) | 47.78% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.02% ( -0.11) | 69.97% ( 0.11) |
| Queen of the South Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% ( -0.14) | 23.7% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.18% ( -0.21) | 57.82% ( 0.21) |
| Dumbarton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.42% ( 0.03) | 26.58% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.2% ( 0.04) | 61.79% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Queen of the South | Draw | Dumbarton |
| 1-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 39.9% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.53% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 34.68% |
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