Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 74.09%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Baltika had a probability of 8.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.76%) and 3-0 (10.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Baltika win it was 0-1 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
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