SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 44.67%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 27.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
44.67% ( 0.18) | 27.46% ( 0.06) | 27.87% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 46.93% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.81% ( -0.31) | 58.19% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.16% ( -0.24) | 78.84% ( 0.24) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.06% ( -0.05) | 25.94% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.06% ( -0.07) | 60.94% ( 0.07) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.36% ( -0.36) | 36.64% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.57% ( -0.36) | 73.43% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
| 1-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 44.67% | 1-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.5% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.45% | 0-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.85% Total : 27.87% |
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