Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 16.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.64%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
