Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
