SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
44.35% ( 0.94) | 26.24% ( -0.19) | 29.41% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 51.38% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.11% ( 0.43) | 52.89% ( -0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.5% ( 0.36) | 74.5% ( -0.36) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.26% ( 0.65) | 23.74% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.13% ( 0.93) | 57.87% ( -0.93) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.38% ( -0.33) | 32.62% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.83% ( -0.37) | 69.17% ( 0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rio Ave | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.3% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.76% Total : 44.34% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 1% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.59% Total : 29.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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