Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
