SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Boavista | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Arouca | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Benfica | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Portimonense | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.93%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.27%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.64%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Benfica |
14.79% ( 0.2) | 20.28% ( 0.16) | 64.93% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 50% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.31% ( -0.29) | 44.69% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.94% ( -0.28) | 67.05% ( 0.28) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.46% ( 0.1) | 42.54% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.1% ( 0.09) | 78.9% ( -0.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.01% ( -0.19) | 12.99% ( 0.19) |
