SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leicester City | Draw | Chelsea |
30.39% ( 0.04) | 25.85% ( -0) | 43.75% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.09% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.08% ( 0.03) | 50.91% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.21% ( 0.02) | 72.79% ( -0.03) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.1% ( 0.04) | 30.89% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.82% ( 0.04) | 67.18% ( -0.05) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.83% ( -0.01) | 23.17% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.95% ( -0.01) | 57.05% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leicester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 1-0 @ 8.41% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.94% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.83% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0)Other @ 3% Total : 30.39% | 1-1 @ 12.29% 0-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 10.46% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.99% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.57% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.6% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2.04% Total : 43.74% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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