Nations League | League C

Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
5 - 0
Bulgaria

Price (15', 29', 81'), Mitov (32' og.), Magennis (89')
Price (25'), Toal (41')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Despodov (30'), Krastev (38')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Belarus 0-0 N. Ireland
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

Bulgaria

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Bulgaria	0	0	0
3	Luxembourg	0	0	0
4	Belarus	0	0	0

We said: Northern Ireland 1-1 Bulgaria

In a tightly contested group, with few goals and few wins, it could be another share of the spoils on Tuesday evening, as Bulgaria are particularly hard to beat. Northern Ireland are certainly showing signs of improvement, but without a clinical finisher they may have to settle for a home draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 52.01%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 19.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.54%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
52.01% ( 0.43)	28.17% ( -0.15)	19.82% ( -0.28)

Both teams to score 37.97% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.24% (

0.19)

65.75% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.58% (

0.13)

84.41% (

-0.13)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.16% (

0.29)

25.84% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.19% (

0.39)

60.8% (

-0.39)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.2% (

-0.21)

48.8% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.19% (

-0.15)

83.81% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 52.01%

Bulgaria 19.82%

Draw 28.15%

Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 17.06% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11.54% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.81% Total : 52.01%	0-0 @ 12.6% ( -0.09) 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 28.15%	0-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.08% Total : 19.82%