SM
| Current League C4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 19.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bulgaria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Gibraltar |
57.24% ( -0.11) | 23.5% ( 0.05) | 19.26% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 49.01% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.26% ( -0.11) | 50.74% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.37% ( -0.1) | 72.63% ( 0.1) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.5% ( -0.08) | 17.5% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.99% ( -0.14) | 48.01% ( 0.14) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.41% ( 0.01) | 40.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.81% ( 0.01) | 77.19% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Gibraltar |
| 1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.79% 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 57.24% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0)Other @ 0.85% Total : 23.5% | 0-1 @ 6.41% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.1% Total : 19.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 69 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 67 | 25 | 42 | 61 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 50 |
| 4 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
| 5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 26 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 47 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 29 | 18 | 42 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 42 |
| 8 | Brentford | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Fulham | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 27 |
| 14 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 26 |
| 15 | Everton | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 25 |
| 18 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 19 | Bournemouth | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 24 |
| 20 | Southampton | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 23 |
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