SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 1-0 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aldershot Town | Draw | York City |
29.72% ( -0.02) | 24.7% ( -0.01) | 45.58% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 56.52% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.72% ( 0.01) | 46.28% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.43% ( 0) | 68.57% ( -0.01) |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.98% ( -0.01) | 29.01% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.08% ( -0.02) | 64.91% ( 0.01) |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.62% ( 0.01) | 20.38% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.2% ( 0.02) | 52.8% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldershot Town | Draw | York City |
| 1-0 @ 7.32% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.2% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.53% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.87% ( -0)4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 29.72% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.73% 3-3 @ 1.25% Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.69% | 0-1 @ 9.41% 1-2 @ 9.26% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.48% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.91% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.97% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.04% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.58% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 2.8% Total : 45.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Wrexham | 45 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 115 | 42 | 73 | 110 |
| 2 | Notts County | 45 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 116 | 41 | 75 | 106 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 45 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 77 | 52 | 25 | 81 |
| 4 | Woking | 44 | 23 | 10 | 11 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 79 |
| 5 | Barnet | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 75 | 65 | 10 | 74 |
| 6 | Bromley | 45 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 67 | 52 | 15 | 70 |
| 7 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 44 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 69 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 44 | 11 | 66 |
| 9 | Eastleigh | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 66 |
| 10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 45 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 62 | 63 | -1 | 60 |
| 11 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 59 | 72 | -13 | 60 |
| 12 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 44 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 58 |
| 13 | Halifax TownHalifax | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 57 |
| 14 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 57 |
| 15 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 45 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 55 |
| 16 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 65 | 90 | -25 | 54 |
| 17 | Gateshead | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 61 | 62 | -1 | 53 |
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 45 | 14 | 10 | 21 | 63 | 75 | -12 | 52 |
| 19 | York City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 50 |
| 20 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 50 |
| 21 | Torquay UnitedTorquay Utd | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 47 |
| R | Yeovil TownYeovil | 45 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 40 |
| R | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 45 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 48 | 85 | -37 | 34 |
| R | Maidstone UnitedMaidstone | 45 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 45 | 100 | -55 | 25 |
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