SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for Dartford had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Dartford win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Oxford City | Draw | Dartford |
43.3% ( -1.31) | 24.26% ( 0.11) | 32.44% ( 1.2) |
| Both teams to score 59.39% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.89% ( -0.02) | 43.11% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.49% ( -0.02) | 65.51% ( 0.02) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.92% ( -0.58) | 20.08% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.68% ( -0.93) | 52.31% ( 0.93) |
| Dartford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.31% ( 0.73) | 25.68% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.4% ( 0.99) | 60.59% ( -0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford City | Draw | Dartford |
| 2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.97% Total : 43.3% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.16% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 7.65% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 3.47% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 79 | 34 | 45 | 79 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 35 | 29 | 66 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 42 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 59 |
| 5 | Worthing | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 58 |
| 6 | Braintree TownBraintree | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 58 |
| 7 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 55 |
| 8 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 52 |
| 9 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 51 |
| 10 | Farnborough Town | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 48 |
| 11 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 34 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 48 |
| 12 | Bath City | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 45 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 45 |
| 14 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 15 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 40 |
| 16 | Slough TownSlough | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 60 | -21 | 36 |
| 17 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 33 |
| 18 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 32 |
| 19 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 32 |
| 20 | Cheshunt | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 38 | 59 | -21 | 31 |
| 21 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 29 |
| 22 | Weymouth | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 39 | 60 | -21 | 28 |
| 23 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 27 |
| 24 | Concord Rangers | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 27 |
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